Arctic Warming and the Lobster Fishery

Warming ocean waters and melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean are altering ocean circulation patterns and oceanographic conditions at lower latitudes in the Northwest Atlantic. These Arctic changes may have direct implications on the lobster fishery, the most valuable single-species fishery in the United States. This project will link the impacts of Arctic oceanographic changes on primary and secondary productivity with changes in the distribution and productivity of the lobster population in waters of the Northeast U.S. and Maritimes Canada.

We will develop a model to understand the influence of changing ocean temperatures, currents, and other environmental conditions on the abundance and distribution of the lobster population. To evaluate resiliency within the lobster fishery and dependent communities, population model outputs will be incorporated into a bioeconomic model to simulate spatial and temporal changes in fishing effort and evaluate the economic outcomes and adaptation strategies in the fishery. Further, socioeconomic indicators will be developed to enable the industry, communities, and managers to track resilience of the lobster fishery and its participants.

The project will draw heavily upon science-industry collaborations and cross-border partnerships to inform the modeling components, provide input on scenarios that are evaluated, and shape delivery of information to users in industry, community, and management arenas. The project will also provide opportunities for multiple graduate students and postdoctoral associates to gain experience in a highly transdisciplinary, collaborative research endeavor.